Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L11-46 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W20-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L16-31 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L17-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:34% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:22% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:12% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:22% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:35% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:33% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 73.4% |
| 5-3 | 1.0% | 8.7% |
| 4-4 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 17.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 31.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 31.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 13.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
San José State
Hawai'i
New MexicoNevada
Air Force
Colorado StateCCG: 2.1% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NevadaCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 34.5%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05