Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W44-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:37% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:24% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:37% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:9% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 94.8% |
| 6-2 | 1.1% | 42.6% |
| 5-3 | 7.2% | 1.6% |
| 4-4 | 22.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 34.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 26.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.5%) | 1.5% (+0.8%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.3%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.2%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
San José StateHawai'i
New Mexico
San Diego State
Air Force
Colorado StateCCG: 7.6% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 1.5% • Scenario: 37.3%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
94.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
42.6%
1.1%
72.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%
53.3%
0.1%52.6%
0.2%37.5%
0.1%
33.3%
0.5%Any 2 losses
1.6%
7.2%4.0%
0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.3%
0.2%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
1.0%1.8%
0.5%1.6%
0.2%1.6%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
1.8%1.0%
1.0%0.6%
1.0%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05