UNLVRebels

5-0 T1st (1-0) in MWC

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

55.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsIdaho StateIDST	W38-31
1	8/29	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	W38-21
2	9/06	vsUCLAUCLA	W30-23
4	9/20	@Miami (OH)M-OH	W41-38
6	10/04	@WyomingWYO	W31-17
7	10/11	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:87%
8	10/18	@Boise StateBOIS	Win prob:38%
10	11/01	vsNew MexicoUNM	Win prob:81%
11	11/08	@Colorado StateCSU	Win prob:81%
12	11/15	vsUtah StateUSU	Win prob:81%
13	11/21	vsHawai'iHAW	Win prob:91%
14	11/29	@NevadaNEV	Win prob:86%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	13.5%	100.0%
7-1	37.4%	86.6%
6-2	32.3%	28.9%
5-3	13.4%	1.1%
4-4	3.0%	0%
3-5	0.4%	0%
2-6	0.0%	0%
1-7	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

58.9%

21.7%

7.5%

6.8%

5.1%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
San José StateSJSU@WyomingWYO	52.9% (-2.5%)	58.5% (+3.1%)
Utah StateUSU@Hawai'iHAW	54.6% (-0.7%)	56.6% (+1.2%)
New MexicoUNM@Boise StateBOIS	59.3% (+3.9%)	54.6% (-0.8%)
San Diego StateSDSU@NevadaNEV	53.6% (-1.7%)	58.7% (+3.3%)
Air ForceAF@UNLVUNLV	29.8% (-25.5%)	59.4% (+4.0%)
Fresno StateFRES@Colorado StateCSU	51.4% (-4.0%)	64.1% (+8.7%)

Best Winner Combination for

Wyoming

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Nevada

UNLV

Colorado State

CCG: 79.2% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UNLV

Colorado State

CCG: 68.3% • Scenario: 27.2%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

13.5%

Any 1 loss

86.6%

37.4%

94.2%

3.2%

93.4%

2.1%

93.2%

1.4%

92.8%

3.3%

92.8%

2.3%

90.8%

3.1%

82.3%

22.0%

Any 2 losses

28.9%

32.3%

50.0%

0.5%

49.0%

0.5%

47.1%

0.2%

46.8%

0.3%

46.2%

0.2%

45.5%

0.5%

45.1%

0.4%

44.3%

0.5%

42.1%

0.3%

41.0%

0.8%

39.8%

0.5%

38.6%

0.6%

35.9%

0.3%

35.3%

0.8%

32.7%

0.7%

30.1%

3.5%

28.7%

3.7%

27.7%

5.3%

24.8%

2.2%

24.6%

5.2%

17.8%

5.1%

Any 3 losses

1.2%

12.0%

6.9%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

6.4%

<0.1%

4.5%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.8%

1.8%

0.6%

1.8%

0.5%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.4%

1.6%

0.1%

1.6%

0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.4%

0.9%

1.3%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.8%

0.9%

0.6%

0.9%

0.7%

0.9%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

1.3%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

1.2%

0.5%

0.9%

0.5%

0.4%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com