Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W10-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L6-31 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L20-37 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L17-31 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:39% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:59% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:29% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:20% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:67% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:49% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 83.8% |
| 6-2 | 2.2% | 20.4% |
| 5-3 | 10.1% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 23.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 22.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.5%) | 1.4% (+0.7%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.3%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.3%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wyoming
Hawai'i
New Mexico
Nevada
Air Force
Colorado StateCCG: 6.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WyomingCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 44.3%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
83.8%
0.2%Any 1 loss
20.4%
2.2%29.6%
0.1%28.0%
0.1%26.3%
0.3%24.9%
0.2%
22.4%
0.3%
20.6%
0.5%
13.5%
0.8%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05