Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-05
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 2-0 | 4-1 | 59.7% | |
| T1 |  TroyTROY | 1-0 | 3-2 | 32.7% | |
| T1 |  Old DominionODU | 1-0 | 4-1 | 18.5% | |
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 1-0 | 2-3 | 10.2% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 1-0 | 3-2 | 3.0% | |
| T1 |  UL MonroeULM | 1-0 | 3-2 | 1.1% | |
| T7 |  Arkansas StateARST | 1-1 | 2-4 | 2.2% | |
| T7 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 1-1 | 2-3 | 0.2% | |
| T9 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-1 | 3-2 | 44.2% | |
| T9 |  MarshallMRSH | 0-1 | 2-3 | 19.9% | |
| T9 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-2 | 1-5 | 6.6% | |
| T9 |  App StateAPP | 0-1 | 3-2 | 1.3% | |
| T9 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0.3% | |
| T9 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-1 | 1-4 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 59.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 61.1% (+1.3%) | 59.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 59.6% (-0.1%) | 59.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 61.3% (+1.6%) | 58.3% (-1.5%) | |
| 59.6% (-0.1%) | 59.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 60.2% (+0.4%) | 59.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 59.5% (-0.3%) | 59.8% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LouisianaTexas StateOld DominionGeorgia StateSouthern MissUL MonroeCCG: 68.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Old DominionCCG: 61.3% • Scenario: 48.3%
Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 72.0% | 40.5% | 13.6% | 2.2% | - | 59.7% |
| Texas StateTXST | - | 99.5% | 70.9% | 39.9% | 13.4% | <0.1% | 44.2% |
| TroyTROY | 100% | 78.5% | 51.2% | 14.4% | 2.1% | - | 32.7% |
| MarshallMRSH | - | 100% | 58.0% | 25.0% | 1.4% | - | 19.9% |
| Old DominionODU | 100% | 38.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 0.2% | - | 18.5% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 85.1% | 53.0% | 9.8% | <0.1% | - | 10.2% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | 61.3% | 8.5% | 1.2% | - | 6.6% |
| Southern MissUSM | 100% | 77.2% | 30.1% | 6.3% | <0.1% | - | 3.0% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | 100% | 42.6% | 15.2% | 3.6% | - | 2.2% |
| App StateAPP | - | 100% | 39.9% | 4.0% | 0.2% | - | 1.3% |
| UL MonroeULM | 100% | 82.6% | 43.2% | 15.5% | 3.7% | - | 1.1% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | 17.2% | 3.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | - | 0.3% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | 56.9% | 4.7% | 0.3% | - | - | 0.2% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | 3.1% | 0.2% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(2-0) | 18.1% | 38.7% | 30.2% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.6 |
| Old DominionODU(1-0) | 4.8% | 23.1% | 36.6% | 25.1% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - | 5.9 |
| TroyTROY(1-0) | 1.6% | 12.4% | 31.7% | 33.1% | 16.4% | 4.2% | 0.5% | <0.1% | - | 5.3 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-1) | - | 8.3% | 27.3% | 34.4% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.0 |
| MarshallMRSH(0-1) | - | 3.0% | 15.3% | 30.4% | 30.1% | 16.1% | 4.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.4 |
| LouisianaUL(1-0) | 0.1% | 2.0% | 10.9% | 26.6% | 33.6% | 20.5% | 5.8% | 0.6% | - | 4.2 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-2) | - | - | 5.8% | 30.1% | 36.9% | 20.7% | 5.7% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.1 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(0-1) | - | 0.5% | 4.7% | 17.7% | 31.1% | 28.4% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 3.6 |
| Southern MissUSM(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 15.9% | 29.4% | 30.6% | 15.7% | 3.0% | - | 3.6 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(1-1) | - | 0.1% | 2.4% | 13.4% | 32.0% | 34.4% | 15.3% | 2.3% | - | 3.5 |
| App StateAPP(0-1) | - | 0.1% | 1.8% | 11.0% | 28.3% | 33.2% | 19.6% | 5.6% | 0.6% | 3.2 |
| Arkansas StateARST(1-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.0% | 6.5% | 20.6% | 34.3% | 28.4% | 9.1% | - | 2.9 |
| UL MonroeULM(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 11.9% | 28.7% | 36.7% | 19.4% | - | 2.4 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 8.6% | 25.4% | 39.3% | 24.7% | 1.2 |
Data from 2025-10-05