TroyTrojans

3-2 T1st (1-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

32.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNichollsNICH	W38-20
2	9/06	@ClemsonCLEM	L16-27
3	9/13	vsMemphisMEM	L7-28
4	9/20	@BuffaloBUF	W21-17
6	10/04	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	W31-24
7	10/11	@Texas StateTXST	Win prob:23%
8	10/18	@UL MonroeULM	Win prob:78%
9	10/25	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:67%
10	11/01	vsArkansas StateARST	Win prob:83%
12	11/13	@Old DominionODU	Win prob:28%
13	11/22	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:89%
14	11/29	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:66%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.6%	100.0%
7-1	12.4%	78.5%
6-2	31.7%	51.2%
5-3	33.1%	14.4%
4-4	16.4%	2.1%
3-5	4.2%	0%
2-6	0.5%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

59.9%

19.3%

19.2%

1.3%

0.4%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
LouisianaUL@James MadisonJMU	32.9% (+0.2%)	32.7% (-0.0%)
TroyTROY@Texas StateTXST	77.1% (+44.4%)	19.1% (-13.5%)
Old DominionODU@MarshallMRSH	33.1% (+0.4%)	32.4% (-0.3%)
App StateAPP@Georgia StateGAST	32.7% (+0.0%)	32.7% (+0.0%)
Southern MissUSM@Georgia SouthernGASO	32.7% (+0.0%)	32.7% (-0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@Coastal CarolinaCCU	32.1% (-0.6%)	33.0% (+0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Louisiana

Troy

Marshall

Georgia State

Georgia Southern

UL Monroe

CCG: 82.2% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Troy

CCG: 77.1% • Scenario: 23.4%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.6%

Any 1 loss

78.5%

12.4%

100.0%

4.3%

100.0%

0.2%

98.0%

0.5%

96.5%

0.3%

93.4%

0.8%

78.0%

0.8%

55.7%

5.5%

Any 2 losses

51.3%

31.7%

100.0%

0.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.2%

1.3%

97.1%

0.9%

96.4%

<0.1%

94.3%

2.3%

94.0%

0.1%

76.5%

2.1%

70.0%

0.1%

58.4%

0.2%

56.4%

14.3%

56.0%

<0.1%

56.0%

0.7%

55.1%

0.2%

39.3%

0.2%

38.9%

0.4%

38.8%

0.2%

11.0%

1.6%

9.2%

2.8%

6.5%

1.1%

2.9%

2.6%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com