Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-45 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L20-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W42-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L51-54 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:46% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:35% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:87% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 3.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 15.3% | 58.0% |
| 5-3 | 30.4% | 25.0% |
| 4-4 | 30.1% | 1.4% |
| 3-5 | 16.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 18.8% (-1.1%) | 20.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.1% (-0.8%) | 20.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 7.7% (-12.2%) | 31.3% (+11.4%) | |
| 19.8% (-0.1%) | 20.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 19.9% (-0.0%) | 19.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.8% (-0.1%) | 20.0% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana
TroyMarshall
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
UL MonroeCCG: 37.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarshallCCG: 31.3% • Scenario: 51.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.0%Any 1 loss
58.0%
15.3%
100.0%
3.4%99.8%
0.5%
99.0%
1.0%95.7%
0.7%
94.8%
1.4%
52.5%
2.8%
10.0%
5.5%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05