UL MonroeWarhawks

3-2 T1st (1-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsSt. Francis (PA)SFPA	W29-0
2	9/06	@AlabamaALA	L0-73
4	9/20	@UTEPUTEP	W31-25
5	9/27	vsArkansas StateARST	W28-16
6	10/04	@NorthwesternNU	L7-42
7	10/11	@Coastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:30%
8	10/18	vsTroyTROY	Win prob:22%
9	10/25	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:29%
10	11/01	vsOld DominionODU	Win prob:13%
12	11/15	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	Win prob:23%
13	11/22	@Texas StateTXST	Win prob:6%
14	11/29	@LouisianaUL	Win prob:19%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	100.0%
7-1	0.0%	82.6%
6-2	0.4%	43.2%
5-3	2.8%	15.5%
4-4	11.9%	3.7%
3-5	28.7%	0%
2-6	36.7%	0%
1-7	19.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

61.7%

21.5%

15.9%

0.9%

0.0%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
LouisianaUL@James MadisonJMU	1.1% (+0.0%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
TroyTROY@Texas StateTXST	1.3% (+0.2%)	1.0% (-0.1%)
Old DominionODU@MarshallMRSH	1.2% (+0.1%)	1.0% (-0.1%)
App StateAPP@Georgia StateGAST	1.1% (+0.0%)	1.1% (-0.0%)
Southern MissUSM@Georgia SouthernGASO	1.0% (-0.1%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@Coastal CarolinaCCU	1.0% (-0.1%)	1.1% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Louisiana

Troy

Marshall

Georgia State

Southern Miss

UL Monroe

CCG: 5.9% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Troy

CCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 23.4%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

81.2%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

50.9%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

69.2%

<0.1%

69.2%

<0.1%

59.3%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.0%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com