Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L12-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-52 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L31-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W54-51 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:11% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:33% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:34% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.0% | 85.1% |
| 6-2 | 10.9% | 53.0% |
| 5-3 | 26.6% | 9.8% |
| 4-4 | 33.6% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 20.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.8% (-0.5%) | 10.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.1% (-0.1%) | 10.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.3% (+0.1%) | 10.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.2% (-0.1%) | 10.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.2% (+0.0%) | 10.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.2% (+0.0%) | 10.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana
Troy
Old Dominion
Georgia State
Southern Miss
UL MonroeCCG: 16.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
James Madison
Texas StateOld DominionCCG: 10.5% • Scenario: 32.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
85.2%
2.0%100.0%
1.0%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
89.5%
0.2%55.4%
0.3%49.0%
0.3%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05