Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-12
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 3-0 | 5-1 | 51.6% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 2-0 | 3-3 | 77.2% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 2-0 | 4-2 | 5.3% | |
| 4 |  Louisiana TechLT | 2-1 | 4-2 | 27.8% | |
| T5 |  DelawareDEL | 1-1 | 3-2 | 18.5% | |
| T5 |  LibertyLIB | 1-1 | 2-4 | 12.2% | |
| T5 |  Missouri StateMOST | 1-1 | 3-3 | 5.4% | |
| T5 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-1 | 3-2 | 1.6% | |
| T9 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0.5% | |
| T9 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-2 | 1-5 | <0.1% | |
| T9 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-2 | 1-5 | <0.1% | |
| T9 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-3 | 0-6 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 77.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 56.4% (-20.8%) | 89.5% (+12.3%) | |
| 77.5% (+0.3%) | 77.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 77.1% (-0.0%) | 77.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 80.0% (+2.9%) | 76.5% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateNew Mexico StateSam HoustonFlorida InternationalCCG: 92.6% • Scenario: 1.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 89.5% • Scenario: 62.9%
Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 98.2% | 57.1% | 2.7% | 77.2% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 97.3% | 44.2% | 2.1% | 51.6% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | 98.6% | 50.7% | 1.5% | 27.8% |
| DelawareDEL | - | 96.9% | 36.6% | 1.1% | 18.5% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 91.3% | 32.4% | 1.2% | 12.2% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 87.9% | 27.4% | 1.0% | 5.4% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 92.5% | 35.1% | 0.9% | 5.3% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | 94.8% | 34.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | 100% | 54.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | 42.6% | 1.5% | <0.1% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | 80.0% | 2.5% | <0.1% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | - | 2.3% | - |
Data from 2025-10-12
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(2-0) | 23.1% | 39.3% | 26.8% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | 6.7 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(3-0) | 5.3% | 27.5% | 43.1% | 20.1% | 3.8% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| Louisiana TechLT(2-1) | - | 10.8% | 32.8% | 35.6% | 17.1% | 3.5% | 0.2% | - | - | 5.3 |
| DelawareDEL(1-1) | - | 7.8% | 28.7% | 37.1% | 20.8% | 5.0% | 0.5% | <0.1% | - | 5.1 |
| LibertyLIB(1-1) | - | 4.9% | 22.4% | 35.3% | 26.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% | - | 4.8 |
| Missouri StateMOST(1-1) | - | 1.9% | 12.4% | 29.0% | 32.5% | 18.5% | 5.1% | 0.6% | - | 4.3 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(2-0) | <0.1% | 1.7% | 9.7% | 25.8% | 34.9% | 22.4% | 5.5% | - | - | 4.2 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-1) | - | 0.3% | 3.3% | 15.2% | 30.9% | 31.8% | 15.7% | 2.9% | - | 3.5 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 15.8% | 29.7% | 30.2% | 15.7% | 3.2% | 2.6 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 1.2% | 7.7% | 23.9% | 35.5% | 25.2% | 6.5% | 2.1 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.6% | 5.1% | 20.3% | 36.7% | 29.0% | 8.2% | 1.9 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-3) | - | - | - | <0.1% | 1.9% | 12.6% | 33.1% | 37.1% | 15.2% | 1.5 |
Data from 2025-10-12