Western KentuckyHilltoppers

5-1 T1st (3-0) in CUSA

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

51.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsSam HoustonSHSU	W41-24
1	8/30	vsNorth AlabamaUNA	W55-6
2	9/06	@ToledoTOL	L21-45
4	9/20	vsNevadaNEV	W31-16
5	9/27	@Missouri StateMOST	W27-22
6	10/03	@DelawareDEL	W27-24
7	10/14	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	Win prob:82%
8	10/21	@Louisiana TechLT	Win prob:33%
10	11/01	vsNew Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:81%
12	11/15	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:85%
13	11/22	@LSULSU	Win prob:10%
14	11/29	@Jacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:28%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	5.3%	100.0%
7-1	27.5%	97.3%
6-2	43.1%	44.2%
5-3	20.1%	2.1%
4-4	3.8%	0%
3-5	0.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

67.6%

12.9%

10.6%

5.7%

3.3%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
DelawareDEL@Jacksonville StateJXST	50.9% (-0.7%)	52.0% (+0.4%)
New Mexico StateNMSU@LibertyLIB	54.7% (+3.1%)	50.8% (-0.8%)
UTEPUTEP@Sam HoustonSHSU	51.5% (-0.1%)	51.6% (+0.1%)
Florida InternationalFIU@Western KentuckyWKU	28.6% (-23.0%)	56.6% (+5.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Jacksonville State

New Mexico State

UTEP

Western Kentucky

CCG: 60.3% • Scenario: 5.7%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Western Kentucky

CCG: 56.6% • Scenario: 82.0%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.5%

Any 1 loss

99.0%

7.6%

100.0%

4.8%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.2%

0.1%

98.0%

1.1%

95.9%

1.3%

Any 2 losses

89.4%

28.9%

99.6%

1.1%

99.5%

0.8%

99.2%

1.2%

98.2%

9.6%

96.4%

<0.1%

96.1%

12.0%

90.9%

<0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

67.4%

0.2%

66.5%

0.3%

58.0%

0.3%

56.9%

0.2%

56.8%

0.1%

54.5%

0.2%

31.6%

2.7%

Any 3 losses

42.3%

40.9%

85.7%

0.2%

84.9%

0.3%

81.2%

0.2%

67.5%

2.1%

66.8%

2.7%

62.9%

1.6%

60.8%

2.9%

58.1%

2.1%

57.4%

2.4%

33.2%

24.4%

7.0%

<0.1%

6.8%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.8%

<0.1%

3.1%

<0.1%

1.9%

0.6%

1.4%

0.6%

0.9%

0.4%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com