Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W35-7 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:43% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:60% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:41% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:11% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.7% | 92.5% |
| 6-2 | 9.7% | 35.1% |
| 5-3 | 25.8% | 0.9% |
| 4-4 | 34.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 22.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2% (-0.1%) | 5.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.7% (+0.4%) | 5.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.1%) | 5.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.4% (+2.1%) | 4.8% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Jacksonville State
New Mexico State
Sam Houston
Florida InternationalCCG: 8.6% • Scenario: 1.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida InternationalCCG: 7.4% • Scenario: 18.0%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
92.5%
1.7%99.3%
0.1%
98.5%
0.1%
98.4%
<0.1%
97.0%
0.4%96.2%
0.1%87.1%
0.8%Any 2 losses
35.1%
9.7%60.3%
<0.1%60.2%
<0.1%59.2%
0.2%58.6%
<0.1%57.7%
0.2%55.6%
0.2%50.7%
0.3%48.0%
0.5%45.5%
0.6%44.8%
0.5%33.3%
1.0%31.7%
1.1%29.1%
1.1%28.8%
0.5%27.4%
3.3%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12