Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W19-8 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:81% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:48% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:69% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:70% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:33% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 4.9% | 91.3% |
| 6-2 | 22.4% | 32.4% |
| 5-3 | 35.3% | 1.2% |
| 4-4 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 9.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.4% (+1.3%) | 11.4% (-0.7%) | |
| 3.2% (-9.0%) | 14.3% (+2.2%) | |
| 12.0% (-0.2%) | 12.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 16.7% (+4.6%) | 11.2% (-1.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateLiberty
Sam Houston
Florida InternationalCCG: 20.4% • Scenario: 4.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 14.3% • Scenario: 80.5%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
91.3%
4.9%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12