Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W35-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L7-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W38-16 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | L24-27 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:58% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:87% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:54% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 7.8% | 96.9% |
| 6-2 | 28.7% | 36.6% |
| 5-3 | 37.1% | 1.1% |
| 4-4 | 20.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 38.8% (+20.3%) | 6.5% (-12.0%) | |
| 18.3% (-0.2%) | 18.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 18.6% (+0.1%) | 18.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 24.1% (+5.6%) | 17.3% (-1.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Delaware
New Mexico State
UTEP
Florida InternationalCCG: 46.2% • Scenario: 0.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DelawareCCG: 38.8% • Scenario: 37.1%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.0%
4.3%Any 1 loss
48.0%
18.9%
96.7%
3.6%61.7%
0.6%
61.4%
0.5%
61.1%
0.6%
42.5%
3.8%
32.2%
3.0%
29.5%
6.9%Any 2 losses
15.2%
33.3%63.0%
0.5%62.3%
0.5%61.3%
0.5%41.4%
3.3%32.4%
2.5%29.4%
6.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.6%
0.4%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.6%2.3%
0.4%2.1%
0.9%2.0%
1.0%1.7%
0.5%1.6%
0.4%1.4%
0.4%1.4%
1.1%0.9%
6.3%0.7%
2.7%0.5%
5.1%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12