Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W40-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W23-17 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L14-39 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W41-13 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L27-33 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:44% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:25% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:40% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.1% | 35.3% |
| 6-3 | 1.0% | 2.1% |
| 5-4 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 33.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 29.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 10.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona State
Utah
TCU
West Virginia
Oklahoma StateArizonaCCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArizonaCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 43.9%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
35.3%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
2.1%
1.0%
4.2%
<0.1%
2.2%
0.1%
2.1%
0.2%
2.0%
0.1%1.7%
0.4%
1.6%
0.1%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12