Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W43-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W63-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-6 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W48-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W42-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:39% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:60% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 2.9% | 99.8% |
| 7-2 | 14.8% | 73.9% |
| 6-3 | 30.1% | 12.9% |
| 5-4 | 30.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 18.2% (+0.5%) | 17.2% (-0.5%) | |
| 34.9% (+17.2%) | 6.7% (-11.0%) | |
| 17.9% (+0.2%) | 17.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 17.9% (+0.2%) | 17.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.6% (-0.1%) | 18.8% (+1.1%) | |
| 17.9% (+0.1%) | 17.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas TechUtah
Baylor
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
HoustonCCG: 46.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 34.9% • Scenario: 39.1%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
2.9%Any 1 loss
73.9%
14.9%
87.0%
1.3%
83.6%
1.8%
81.6%
3.8%79.4%
2.4%
71.5%
1.0%
57.3%
4.5%Any 2 losses
12.9%
30.1%21.9%
0.9%19.8%
1.7%19.7%
1.1%19.1%
1.6%18.0%
2.4%16.4%
3.2%13.6%
0.4%13.4%
0.6%11.5%
0.8%10.8%
2.9%10.7%
1.3%10.2%
2.1%9.5%
5.9%9.1%
3.8%4.7%
1.4%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12