Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	Overall
TroyTROY	100%	97.3%	84.9%	50.8%	17.8%	-	79.3%
James MadisonJMU	100%	59.9%	25.9%	1.5%	-	-	47.3%
MarshallMRSH	-	100%	63.0%	33.7%	2.2%	-	36.5%
Old DominionODU	-	48.5%	8.0%	1.2%	<0.1%	-	13.8%
LouisianaUL	-	100%	73.4%	7.2%	<0.1%	-	9.9%
Southern MissUSM	100%	82.1%	9.2%	-	-	-	2.8%
South AlabamaUSA	-	-	23.9%	3.6%	0.5%	-	2.6%
Arkansas StateARST	-	100%	44.4%	15.1%	3.2%	-	2.5%
Texas StateTXST	-	-	5.1%	3.8%	1.8%	<0.1%	2.4%
App StateAPP	-	100%	48.5%	3.9%	0.2%	-	2.0%
UL MonroeULM	-	-	85.7%	55.3%	10.4%	<0.1%	0.5%
Georgia SouthernGASO	-	-	25.4%	3.1%	0.2%	-	0.4%
Coastal CarolinaCCU	-	72.9%	3.8%	-	-	-	<0.1%
Georgia StateGAST	-	-	-	2.9%	0.1%	-	-

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	2-6	1-7	0-8	Avg Wins
James MadisonJMU(3-0)	15.8%	38.2%	32.6%	11.8%	1.6%	<0.1%	-	-	-	6.5
TroyTROY(2-0)	6.0%	31.2%	38.1%	19.4%	4.8%	0.6%	<0.1%	-	-	6.1
Old DominionODU(1-1)	-	20.4%	45.6%	26.6%	6.6%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	-	5.8
MarshallMRSH(1-1)	-	7.2%	26.2%	36.3%	22.5%	6.8%	1.0%	<0.1%	-	5.0
Southern MissUSM(2-0)	0.1%	2.0%	10.7%	27.7%	35.5%	20.3%	3.6%	-	-	4.3
Texas StateTXST(0-2)	-	-	10.8%	31.9%	35.0%	17.5%	4.3%	0.4%	<0.1%	4.3
LouisianaUL(1-1)	-	1.2%	9.2%	26.6%	35.3%	21.6%	5.6%	0.5%	-	4.1
South AlabamaUSA(0-2)	-	-	5.9%	29.3%	37.3%	20.8%	5.9%	0.9%	<0.1%	4.1
App StateAPP(1-1)	-	0.1%	2.4%	15.6%	36.0%	32.3%	12.1%	1.5%	-	3.6
Coastal CarolinaCCU(2-1)	-	<0.1%	1.2%	9.3%	30.5%	42.6%	16.3%	-	-	3.4
Arkansas StateARST(1-1)	-	<0.1%	1.3%	7.3%	22.1%	34.5%	26.6%	8.1%	-	3.0
Georgia SouthernGASO(0-2)	-	-	0.5%	5.9%	22.7%	36.5%	25.6%	8.0%	0.8%	2.9
UL MonroeULM(1-1)	-	0.0%	<0.1%	0.3%	2.8%	15.1%	40.3%	41.5%	-	1.8
Georgia StateGAST(0-2)	-	-	0.0%	<0.1%	0.9%	6.5%	23.8%	41.6%	27.2%	1.1

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com