Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
79.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L16-27 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L7-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W21-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W48-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:84% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:20% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 6.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 31.2% | 97.3% |
| 6-2 | 38.1% | 84.9% |
| 5-3 | 19.4% | 50.8% |
| 4-4 | 4.8% | 17.8% |
| 3-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 79.3% (-0.0%) | 79.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 82.5% (+3.2%) | 62.3% (-17.0%) | |
| 80.8% (+1.5%) | 78.7% (-0.6%) | |
| 79.3% (-0.0%) | 79.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.8% (-2.6%) | 79.9% (+0.6%) | |
| 79.3% (-0.0%) | 79.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.2% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Coastal Carolina
UL Monroe
Southern Miss
Georgia State
Arkansas State
James Madison
MarshallCCG: 88.9% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TroyCCG: 82.5% • Scenario: 84.2%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.0%Any 1 loss
97.3%
31.2%
100.0%
22.7%100.0%
0.8%99.5%
1.1%96.2%
1.2%94.0%
2.8%
76.2%
2.6%Any 2 losses
84.9%
38.1%100.0%
3.0%98.9%
4.3%98.6%
0.1%97.3%
0.1%96.0%
4.8%94.7%
0.4%94.4%
10.8%74.9%
10.5%69.7%
0.4%63.9%
0.5%52.6%
0.2%44.9%
0.6%40.5%
0.5%35.1%
1.3%28.5%
0.5%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12