Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L12-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-52 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L31-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W54-51 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L14-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:29% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.2% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 9.2% | 73.4% |
| 5-3 | 26.6% | 7.2% |
| 4-4 | 35.3% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 21.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.1% (+0.2%) | 9.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.4%) | 12.3% (+2.4%) | |
| 3.1% (-6.8%) | 12.7% (+2.8%) | |
| 9.8% (-0.1%) | 9.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.5% (+0.6%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (-0.1%) | 9.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.1% (+0.2%) | 9.7% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
App State
UL MonroeLouisiana
Georgia State
Arkansas State
Old Dominion
Texas StateCCG: 25.6% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisianaCCG: 12.7% • Scenario: 70.9%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.2%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12