MarshallThundering Herd

3-3 T5th (1-1) in SBC

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

36.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@GeorgiaUGA	L7-45
2	9/06	vsMissouri StateMOST	L20-21
3	9/13	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W38-7
4	9/20	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	W42-28
5	9/27	@LouisianaUL	L51-54
7	10/11	vsOld DominionODU	W48-24
8	10/18	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:48%
10	10/30	@Coastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:83%
11	11/08	vsJames MadisonJMU	Win prob:38%
12	11/15	@Georgia StateGAST	Win prob:85%
13	11/22	@App StateAPP	Win prob:68%
14	11/29	vsGeorgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:80%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	7.2%	100.0%
6-2	26.2%	63.0%
5-3	36.3%	33.7%
4-4	22.5%	2.2%
3-5	6.8%	0%
2-6	1.0%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

81.5%

10.3%

2.9%

2.7%

2.6%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Coastal CarolinaCCU@App StateAPP	37.0% (+0.5%)	36.3% (-0.2%)
TroyTROY@UL MonroeULM	36.4% (-0.0%)	36.6% (+0.1%)
Southern MissUSM@LouisianaUL	36.0% (-0.4%)	36.6% (+0.2%)
Georgia StateGAST@Georgia SouthernGASO	36.6% (+0.2%)	36.4% (-0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@South AlabamaUSA	36.3% (-0.1%)	36.5% (+0.0%)
Old DominionODU@James MadisonJMU	44.8% (+8.3%)	31.0% (-5.5%)
Texas StateTXST@MarshallMRSH	38.0% (+1.5%)	34.8% (-1.6%)

Best Winner Combination for

Coastal Carolina

UL Monroe

Southern Miss

Georgia State

Arkansas State

James Madison

Marshall

CCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Old Dominion

CCG: 44.8% • Scenario: 39.7%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

7.2%

Any 1 loss

63.0%

26.2%

100.0%

1.2%

100.0%

7.4%

99.8%

1.5%

96.4%

1.7%

91.7%

3.4%

15.1%

11.0%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com