American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1NavyNAVY4-06-031.3%
T1South FloridaUSF3-06-147.7%
T1TulaneTULN3-06-133.9%
T4MemphisMEM2-16-147.3%
T4North TexasUNT2-16-129.8%
T4East CarolinaECU2-14-35.7%
T4TempleTEM2-14-30.2%
8FL AtlanticFAU2-23-40.1%
9ArmyARMY2-33-4-
10UT San AntonioUTSA1-23-44.1%
T11RiceRICE1-33-4-
T11UABUAB1-33-4-
T13CharlotteCLT0-41-6-
T13TulsaTLSA0-42-5-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

116.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
211.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
310.9%
North TexasUNT
vs
USFSouth Florida
49.9%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
59.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
68.3%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
78.2%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
87.0%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
95.5%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
103.3%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
111.9%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
121.2%
East CarolinaECU
vs
USFSouth Florida
131.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
140.9%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
150.9%
North TexasUNT
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 47.7%
Game
South FloridaCCG OddsAway
South FloridaCCG OddsHome
TempleTEM@TulsaTLSA
47.6%
(-0.1%)		48.0%
(+0.3%)
UConnCONN@RiceRICE
47.7%
(-0.1%)		48.1%
(+0.4%)
South FloridaUSF@MemphisMEM
80.1%
(+32.4%)		35.6%
(-12.1%)
North TexasUNT@CharlotteCLT
47.0%
(-0.7%)		52.7%
(+4.9%)
FL AtlanticFAU@NavyNAVY
51.3%
(+3.6%)		47.1%
(-0.6%)

Best Winner Combination for South Florida

TulsaTulsaRiceRiceSouth FloridaSouth FloridaCharlotteCharlotteFL AtlanticFlorida Atlantic

CCG: 95.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for South Florida

South FloridaSouth Florida

CCG: 80.1% • Scenario: 27.2%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-17-26-26-35-35-4Overall
South FloridaUSF--100%97.2%-23.7%-<0.1%-47.7%
MemphisMEM---99.5%-45.3%-<0.1%-47.3%
TulaneTULN--100%72.3%-4.3%-<0.1%-33.9%
NavyNAVY100%96.8%--44.4%-8.6%-<0.1%31.3%
North TexasUNT---83.8%-7.9%-<0.1%-29.8%
East CarolinaECU---71.7%-3.2%---5.7%
UT San AntonioUTSA-----47.8%-<0.1%-4.1%
TempleTEM---92.9%-24.0%-<0.1%-0.2%
FL AtlanticFAU-----33.8%-<0.1%-0.1%
ArmyARMY----------
CharlotteCLT----------
RiceRICE----------
TulsaTLSA----------
UABUAB-------0.1%--

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-17-26-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-70-8Avg Wins
NavyNAVY(4-0)1.6%12.6%0.0%0.0%32.6%35.6%0.0%16.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%------6.4
TulaneTULN(3-0)-0.0%7.1%34.5%0.0%0.0%43.6%0.0%13.3%0.0%1.4%-<0.1%----6.3
South FloridaUSF(3-0)-0.0%7.1%32.0%0.0%0.0%40.3%0.0%18.1%0.0%2.5%-0.1%----6.2
North TexasUNT(2-1)---31.4%0.0%0.0%43.6%0.0%20.1%0.0%4.4%0.0%0.5%-<0.1%--6.0
MemphisMEM(2-1)---28.5%0.0%0.0%41.7%0.0%23.2%0.0%5.9%0.0%0.6%-<0.1%--5.9
East CarolinaECU(2-1)---6.6%0.0%0.0%30.0%0.0%41.9%0.0%18.4%0.0%3.0%-0.1%--5.2
ArmyARMY(2-3)-----16.8%-46.4%0.0%32.5%0.0%4.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%--4.8
UT San AntonioUTSA(1-2)-----0.0%8.6%0.0%29.6%0.0%36.7%0.0%20.1%0.0%4.7%0.3%-4.2
FL AtlanticFAU(2-2)-----0.0%0.3%0.0%5.2%0.0%29.5%0.0%55.2%-9.8%--3.3
TempleTEM(2-1)---<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%6.9%0.0%28.5%0.0%47.7%-16.1%--3.3
UABUAB(1-3)-------0.0%0.7%0.0%9.5%0.0%36.7%0.0%40.4%12.7%-2.5
RiceRICE(1-3)-------0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%11.1%0.0%49.3%38.8%-1.7
TulsaTLSA(0-4)---------0.0%<0.1%0.0%2.3%0.0%17.4%44.0%36.3%0.9
CharlotteCLT(0-4)---------0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%3.8%26.7%69.3%0.3

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com