Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W26-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:41% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:24% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 34.5% | 72.3% |
| 6-2 | 43.6% | 4.3% |
| 5-3 | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.6% (-0.3%) | 34.4% (+0.6%) | |
| 33.8% (-0.1%) | 34.4% (+0.5%) | |
| 30.2% (-3.7%) | 35.3% (+1.4%) | |
| 32.5% (-1.4%) | 43.3% (+9.4%) | |
| 42.9% (+9.0%) | 32.4% (-1.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
Rice
South Florida
Charlotte
Florida AtlanticCCG: 60.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida AtlanticCCG: 42.9% • Scenario: 13.9%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.1%Any 1 loss
72.3%
34.5%82.8%
0.9%
82.2%
1.4%
82.1%
10.1%79.5%
0.4%
66.6%
21.8%Any 2 losses
4.3%
43.6%16.0%
0.2%15.8%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%12.7%
1.9%11.7%
0.6%11.3%
1.3%4.1%
1.3%4.0%
4.3%3.4%
31.3%3.0%
2.7%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19