Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
47.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W32-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W55-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-7 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L24-31 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:95% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 28.5% | 99.5% |
| 6-2 | 41.7% | 45.3% |
| 5-3 | 23.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.5% (-0.8%) | 49.1% (+1.8%) | |
| 47.3% (+0.1%) | 46.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 14.5% (-32.8%) | 59.5% (+12.3%) | |
| 46.3% (-1.0%) | 54.0% (+6.7%) | |
| 52.3% (+5.0%) | 46.5% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Temple
RiceMemphis
Charlotte
Florida AtlanticCCG: 75.2% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisCCG: 59.5% • Scenario: 72.8%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.5%
28.5%Any 1 loss
45.3%
41.7%67.5%
1.5%
57.8%
13.6%
39.4%
6.8%
37.1%
10.6%
36.9%
9.1%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19