NavyMidshipmen

6-0 T1st (4-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-10-19 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

31.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsVMIVMI	W52-7
2	9/06	vsUABUAB	W38-24
3	9/13	@TulsaTLSA	W42-23
5	9/27	vsRiceRICE	W21-13
6	10/04	vsAir ForceAF	W34-31
7	10/11	@TempleTEM	W32-31
9	10/25	vsFlorida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:86%
10	11/01	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:43%
11	11/08	@Notre DameND	Win prob:2%
12	11/15	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:47%
14	11/27	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:20%
	12/13	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:47%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	1.6%	100.0%
8-1	12.6%	96.8%
7-2	32.6%	44.4%
6-3	35.6%	8.6%
5-4	16.0%	0.0%
4-5	1.7%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

36.5%

26.7%

22.9%

10.9%

2.9%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TempleTEM@TulsaTLSA	31.1% (-0.1%)	31.6% (+0.3%)
UConnCONN@RiceRICE	31.2% (-0.0%)	31.3% (+0.1%)
South FloridaUSF@MemphisMEM	31.9% (+0.7%)	31.0% (-0.3%)
North TexasUNT@CharlotteCLT	31.4% (+0.2%)	29.9% (-1.4%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@NavyNAVY	12.0% (-19.2%)	34.4% (+3.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Tulsa

Rice

Memphis

Charlotte

Navy

CCG: 37.1% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Navy

CCG: 34.4% • Scenario: 86.1%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

99.5%

1.7%

100.0%

1.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.9%

0.1%

94.7%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

94.9%

12.8%

100.0%

1.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.9%

0.3%

98.2%

0.1%

97.5%

6.4%

95.2%

<0.1%

95.2%

1.8%

93.3%

2.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

35.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

14.0%

<0.1%

12.1%

0.1%

10.9%

0.1%

Any 3 losses

44.0%

32.5%

98.2%

0.3%

97.2%

7.3%

94.6%

2.0%

92.0%

2.4%

33.2%

0.3%

31.5%

0.3%

31.4%

1.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

17.8%

0.2%

14.0%

8.9%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.7%

2.4%

10.1%

7.2%

8.5%

0.1%

7.0%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

13.5%

22.4%

33.9%

0.4%

31.1%

1.2%

28.5%

0.3%

13.4%

9.8%

11.5%

2.6%

10.1%

8.2%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com