Mid-American Conference

Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19

Mid-American ConferenceConference Standings

T1Miami OHM-OH3-04-346.7%
T1W MichiganWMU3-04-333.2%
T1BuffaloBUF3-04-332.9%
T4OhioOHIO2-14-359.7%
T4C MichiganCMU2-14-31.2%
T4Ball StBALL2-13-40.1%
7ToledoTOL2-24-318.2%
T8Bowling GreenBGSU1-23-47.9%
T8KentKENT1-22-5-
T10E MichiganEMU1-32-6<0.1%
T10AkronAKR1-32-6-
T12MassachusettsMASS0-30-7-
T12N IllinoisNIU0-31-6-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Mid-American Conference CCG Matchups

122.4%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
OHIOOhio
213.2%
BuffaloBUF
vs
OHIOOhio
312.7%
OhioOHIO
vs
WMUW Michigan
48.2%
BuffaloBUF
vs
WMUW Michigan
58.2%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
WMUW Michigan
68.1%
BuffaloBUF
vs
M-OHMiami OH
76.7%
OhioOHIO
vs
TOLToledo
86.0%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
TOLToledo
94.2%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
OHIOOhio
102.8%
ToledoTOL
vs
WMUW Michigan
112.5%
BuffaloBUF
vs
TOLToledo
121.6%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
M-OHMiami OH
131.2%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
WMUW Michigan
140.7%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
BUFBuffalo
150.5%
C MichiganCMU
vs
OHIOOhio

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Mid-American Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 59.7%
Game
OhioCCG OddsAway
OhioCCG OddsHome
OhioOHIO@E MichiganEMU
64.6%
(+4.9%)		31.6%
(-28.0%)
ToledoTOL@Washington StWSU
59.8%
(+0.1%)		59.4%
(-0.2%)
Ball StBALL@N IllinoisNIU
59.9%
(+0.2%)		59.7%
(-0.0%)
MassachusettsMASS@C MichiganCMU
62.0%
(+2.3%)		59.2%
(-0.5%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@KentKENT
59.8%
(+0.2%)		58.0%
(-1.7%)
W MichiganWMU@Miami OHM-OH
60.0%
(+0.3%)		59.5%
(-0.2%)
AkronAKR@BuffaloBUF
61.7%
(+2.0%)		59.5%
(-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Ohio

E MichiganEastern MichiganWashington StWashington StateMassachusettsMassachusettsKentKent StateW MichiganWestern MichiganAkronAkron

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Ohio

OhioOhio

CCG: 64.6% • Scenario: 85.0%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
OhioOHIO-100%71.1%0.9%59.7%
Miami OHM-OH100%99.9%60.4%1.8%46.7%
W MichiganWMU100%99.4%37.0%0.3%33.2%
BuffaloBUF100%97.5%21.5%0.1%32.9%
ToledoTOL--43.3%0.5%18.2%
Bowling GreenBGSU--21.9%<0.1%7.9%
C MichiganCMU-96.5%34.0%0.1%1.2%
Ball StBALL-100%51.5%0.2%0.1%
E MichiganEMU---7.6%<0.1%
AkronAKR---0.4%-
KentKENT--7.5%0.1%-
MassachusettsMASS-----
N IllinoisNIU---<0.1%-

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
OhioOHIO(2-1)-29.3%42.4%22.6%5.3%0.4%<0.1%--5.9
BuffaloBUF(3-0)4.0%20.9%39.2%28.5%7.0%0.4%---5.9
Miami OHM-OH(3-0)3.5%19.7%38.0%29.8%8.6%0.4%---5.8
W MichiganWMU(3-0)2.9%17.2%35.5%32.0%11.3%1.1%---5.7
ToledoTOL(2-2)--41.5%44.9%12.4%1.1%<0.1%--5.3
Bowling GreenBGSU(1-2)--36.1%43.9%17.2%2.6%0.2%0.0%-5.1
C MichiganCMU(2-1)-0.2%3.1%19.8%45.4%27.7%3.9%--3.9
N IllinoisNIU(0-3)---6.9%40.9%41.1%10.2%0.9%<0.1%3.4
Ball StBALL(2-1)-<0.1%0.3%4.5%27.6%49.4%18.3%--3.2
AkronAKR(1-3)---0.3%7.0%47.3%37.6%7.8%-2.5
E MichiganEMU(1-3)---1.0%10.8%34.7%40.7%12.8%-2.5
KentKENT(1-2)--<0.1%0.9%7.9%27.3%41.5%22.4%-2.2
MassachusettsMASS(0-3)---0.0%<0.1%0.9%9.4%37.9%51.8%0.6

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com