Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
59.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L31-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W17-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L9-37 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W52-35 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W35-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L14-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W48-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:85% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 29.3% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 42.4% | 71.1% |
| 5-3 | 22.6% | 0.9% |
| 4-4 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 64.6% (+4.9%) | 31.6% (-28.0%) | |
| 59.8% (+0.1%) | 59.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 59.9% (+0.2%) | 59.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 62.0% (+2.3%) | 59.2% (-0.5%) | |
| 59.8% (+0.2%) | 58.0% (-1.7%) | |
| 60.0% (+0.3%) | 59.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 61.7% (+2.0%) | 59.5% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Washington State
Massachusetts
Kent State
Western Michigan
AkronCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 64.6% • Scenario: 85.0%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
29.3%Any 1 loss
71.1%
42.4%90.6%
0.4%89.8%
5.2%
74.4%
13.2%68.6%
13.5%
59.9%
10.1%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19