Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L23-28 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W45-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:58% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 41.5% | 43.3% |
| 5-3 | 44.9% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 12.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 17.1% (-1.1%) | 24.6% (+6.5%) | |
| 18.3% (+0.1%) | 18.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 18.1% (-0.1%) | 18.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.3% (-2.9%) | 18.8% (+0.6%) | |
| 17.6% (-0.6%) | 23.8% (+5.6%) | |
| 15.5% (-2.7%) | 19.6% (+1.4%) | |
| 25.2% (+7.0%) | 17.5% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Washington State
Ball State
Kent State
AkronCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Central Michigan
Miami (OH)CCG: 20.1% • Scenario: 54.6%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
43.4%
28.5%Any 1 loss
25.9%
22.0%43.1%
13.1%
0.8%
5.9%0.7%
3.0%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19