Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W28-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:92% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:36% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 20.9% | 97.5% |
| 6-2 | 39.2% | 21.5% |
| 5-3 | 28.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.8% (-1.1%) | 39.2% (+6.3%) | |
| 32.8% (-0.1%) | 33.1% (+0.3%) | |
| 32.4% (-0.5%) | 32.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.4% (+0.5%) | 32.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.5% (-0.4%) | 36.6% (+3.8%) | |
| 30.5% (-2.4%) | 34.1% (+1.2%) | |
| 15.2% (-17.6%) | 34.5% (+1.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Washington State
Ball State
Massachusetts
Kent State
Western MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Miami (OH)BuffaloCCG: 35.7% • Scenario: 60.3%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.0%Any 1 loss
97.5%
20.9%
100.0%
0.4%
99.8%
1.1%
99.7%
6.9%96.5%
4.0%
95.7%
8.6%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19