Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 4-0 | 6-1 | 55.0% | |
| T1 |  TroyTROY | 3-0 | 5-2 | 82.1% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 3-0 | 5-2 | 8.0% | |
| 4 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0.4% | |
| T5 |  MarshallMRSH | 2-1 | 4-3 | 43.5% | |
| T5 |  Arkansas StateARST | 2-1 | 3-4 | 5.4% | |
| T7 |  LouisianaUL | 1-2 | 2-5 | 3.0% | |
| T7 |  App StateAPP | 1-2 | 4-3 | 0.8% | |
| T7 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0.3% | |
| T7 |  Old DominionODU | 1-2 | 4-3 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  UL MonroeULM | 1-2 | 3-4 | <0.1% | |
| T12 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-3 | 3-4 | 1.4% | |
| T12 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-3 | 1-6 | 0.2% | |
| T12 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-3 | 1-6 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 82.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 82.1% (+0.0%) | 82.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 87.0% (+4.9%) | 80.9% (-1.1%) | |
| 81.8% (-0.2%) | 82.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 65.2% (-16.8%) | 88.8% (+6.8%) | |
| 82.2% (+0.1%) | 82.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South AlabamaUL MonroeArkansas StateTroyOld DominionCCG: 94.6% • Scenario: 3.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TroyCCG: 88.8% • Scenario: 71.3%
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TroyTROY | 100% | 95.8% | 79.8% | 35.1% | 12.5% | - | 82.1% |
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 58.1% | 23.7% | 1.9% | - | - | 55.0% |
| MarshallMRSH | - | 100% | 42.9% | 1.8% | - | - | 43.5% |
| Southern MissUSM | 100% | 77.7% | 9.7% | - | - | - | 8.0% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | 100% | 40.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | - | 5.4% |
| LouisianaUL | - | - | 94.0% | 10.0% | - | - | 3.0% |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | - | 3.5% | 1.9% | - | 1.4% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | 99.7% | 8.0% | 0.4% | - | 0.8% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | 100% | 3.8% | - | - | - | 0.4% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | - | 26.3% | 2.5% | 0.1% | - | 0.3% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | - | 1.9% | 0.1% | - | 0.2% |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | - | <0.1% |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | 2.0% | 0.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-10-19
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(4-0) | 22.3% | 44.8% | 27.5% | 5.1% | 0.3% | - | - | - | - | 6.8 |
| TroyTROY(3-0) | 11.9% | 39.7% | 34.8% | 11.8% | 1.7% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| MarshallMRSH(2-1) | - | 23.9% | 44.6% | 25.1% | 5.8% | 0.6% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.9 |
| Old DominionODU(1-2) | - | - | 35.7% | 42.4% | 18.2% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | - | 5.1 |
| Southern MissUSM(3-0) | 0.6% | 6.5% | 24.3% | 39.6% | 25.1% | 4.0% | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(3-1) | - | 0.3% | 4.8% | 27.5% | 50.4% | 17.0% | - | - | - | 4.2 |
| Arkansas StateARST(2-1) | - | 0.3% | 4.0% | 17.9% | 35.2% | 31.9% | 10.8% | - | - | 3.7 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-3) | - | - | - | 17.4% | 40.2% | 31.0% | 10.0% | 1.3% | <0.1% | 3.6 |
| LouisianaUL(1-2) | - | - | 1.8% | 13.0% | 33.0% | 36.1% | 14.8% | 1.4% | - | 3.5 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-3) | - | - | - | 8.5% | 35.8% | 37.4% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 3.3 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(1-2) | - | - | 0.5% | 6.2% | 24.3% | 39.0% | 24.9% | 5.1% | - | 3.0 |
| App StateAPP(1-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 4.6% | 22.8% | 42.3% | 25.5% | 4.5% | - | 3.0 |
| UL MonroeULM(1-2) | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.2% | 9.4% | 36.7% | 52.7% | - | 1.6 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 12.7% | 40.9% | 44.6% | 0.7 |
Data from 2025-10-19