Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
82.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L16-27 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L7-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W21-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W48-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-14 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:71% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:31% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 11.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 39.7% | 95.8% |
| 6-2 | 34.8% | 79.8% |
| 5-3 | 11.8% | 35.1% |
| 4-4 | 1.7% | 12.5% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 82.1% (+0.0%) | 82.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 87.0% (+4.9%) | 80.9% (-1.1%) | |
| 81.8% (-0.2%) | 82.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 65.2% (-16.8%) | 88.8% (+6.8%) | |
| 82.2% (+0.1%) | 82.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South Alabama
UL Monroe
Arkansas StateTroy
Old DominionCCG: 94.6% • Scenario: 3.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TroyCCG: 88.8% • Scenario: 71.3%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
11.9%Any 1 loss
95.8%
39.7%100.0%
26.4%
100.0%
1.1%
93.5%
4.8%
81.7%
5.3%80.3%
2.1%Any 2 losses
79.8%
34.8%100.0%
2.5%93.8%
10.7%93.3%
0.4%81.8%
11.8%81.4%
0.5%80.9%
4.7%80.0%
0.2%31.3%
2.2%15.1%
0.9%2.1%
0.9%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19