Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
43.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-45 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L20-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W42-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L51-54 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W48-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W40-37 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:72% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 23.9% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 44.6% | 42.9% |
| 5-3 | 25.1% | 1.8% |
| 4-4 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 43.5% (+0.1%) | 43.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 43.4% (-0.0%) | 43.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 43.3% (-0.1%) | 43.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 43.6% (+0.2%) | 43.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 42.2% (-1.3%) | 43.8% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Georgia State
UL Monroe
Arkansas State
Louisiana
App StateCCG: 45.3% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Old DominionCCG: 43.8% • Scenario: 80.7%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
23.9%Any 1 loss
42.9%
44.6%100.0%
2.3%98.4%
9.4%
98.4%
3.8%
93.9%
3.8%
1.3%
25.3%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19