Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L12-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-52 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L31-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W54-51 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L14-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L10-22 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:29% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:63% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 1.8% | 94.0% |
| 5-3 | 13.0% | 10.0% |
| 4-4 | 33.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 36.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9% (-0.0%) | 3.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.1% (+1.2%) | 2.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 3.0% (+0.1%) | 2.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.3% (+7.3%) | 0.0% (-2.9%) | |
| 2.9% (-0.1%) | 3.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Georgia State
UL Monroe
Arkansas StateLouisiana
App StateCCG: 17.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisianaCCG: 10.3% • Scenario: 28.7%
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19