Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:44% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:72% | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:81% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:67% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:61% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:37% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:36% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:7% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:32% | |
| 12/14 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.7% | 90.6% |
| 7-2 | 12.9% | 39.1% |
| 6-3 | 24.3% | 8.6% |
| 5-4 | 27.6% | 0.2% |
| 4-5 | 19.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.4%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
84.9%
1.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.6%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.3%
0.3%89.4%
<0.1%86.6%
0.3%85.7%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
55.4%
6.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.1%
0.1%94.0%
0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.9%
0.3%92.7%
0.1%92.5%
<0.1%91.0%
0.2%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.4%
0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.9%
0.4%88.4%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
0.5%82.1%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.8%
0.1%39.8%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.0%
0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
0.2%29.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
0.3%28.1%
0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.5%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%24.3%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.9%
0.1%22.4%
0.4%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
0.2%17.3%
0.6%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
33.6%
11.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.5%
0.2%91.4%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.2%
0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.4%
0.3%88.2%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
0.4%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.6%
0.1%42.1%
0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.0%
0.2%36.7%
0.2%36.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.2%
0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.6%
0.2%35.3%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.2%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.9%
0.3%29.8%
0.3%29.6%
<0.1%29.3%
0.6%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.9%
0.2%27.7%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.8%
0.1%26.7%
0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.0%
0.2%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
0.1%22.0%
0.3%21.9%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.5%
0.3%21.4%
0.7%21.4%
<0.1%20.9%
0.1%20.3%
0.4%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.1%19.6%
0.9%19.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.7%
0.4%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23