Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:71% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:30% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:57% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:30% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:34% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:32% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:66% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.3% | 92.6% |
| 6-2 | 7.1% | 33.0% |
| 5-3 | 19.3% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 29.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 13.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
93.1%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.2%
<0.1%
96.2%
<0.1%
90.9%
<0.1%
90.2%
<0.1%
76.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
55.9%
1.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.5%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%32.7%
0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.0%
0.1%28.1%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.5%
0.2%Any 3 losses
28.2%
5.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.4%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.4%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%36.6%
0.2%36.4%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.1%
0.2%32.8%
0.4%31.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.5%
0.3%27.6%
<0.1%25.8%
0.2%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.3%
0.4%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.4%Any 4 losses
13.8%
5.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.5%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.9%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.9%
0.2%22.9%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.2%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.7%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23