Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:7% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:64% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:60% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:44% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.6% | 99.8% |
| 7-1 | 13.0% | 92.7% |
| 6-2 | 26.9% | 33.3% |
| 5-3 | 29.6% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 19.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 23.8% (+0.0%) | 23.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 23.8% (+0.1%) | 23.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 23.9% • Scenario: 50.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 23.9% • Scenario: 50.8%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.5%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.9%94.5%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%89.9%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
87.3%
6.8%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.6%97.3%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.5%
0.5%95.2%
0.1%95.1%
0.5%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.7%
0.6%93.3%
0.9%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
0.1%91.0%
1.2%88.9%
<0.1%88.8%
0.7%88.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
54.9%
16.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.0%
0.5%96.0%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%94.9%
0.2%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
0.2%94.3%
0.5%93.6%
0.6%93.2%
0.3%93.2%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%92.6%
0.3%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
0.3%92.1%
<0.1%91.7%
0.7%90.8%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%89.8%
0.3%89.5%
0.4%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
0.4%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.7%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.1%
0.5%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.5%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.9%
0.3%38.7%
0.5%38.4%
0.4%38.2%
0.1%37.6%
0.6%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.1%
0.1%34.4%
0.7%34.3%
0.1%34.3%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.2%
0.7%32.6%
0.4%32.3%
1.2%30.9%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.1%
0.8%26.8%
0.7%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
0.5%22.4%
0.9%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
39.3%
14.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.7%
0.2%95.6%
0.3%93.9%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.9%
0.2%93.8%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%92.8%
0.4%92.0%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.6%
0.2%89.6%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%51.1%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.7%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
0.2%43.5%
0.2%43.1%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%42.8%
0.3%42.5%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.5%
0.3%40.5%
<0.1%40.4%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.4%
0.2%38.4%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.4%
0.2%36.4%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.4%
0.3%35.0%
0.1%34.9%
0.3%34.2%
0.4%33.8%
0.1%33.5%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
0.2%32.8%
<0.1%32.4%
0.6%31.9%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.0%
0.4%30.9%
0.4%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
0.4%29.2%
0.1%29.1%
<0.1%29.1%
0.4%28.8%
0.6%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.7%
0.4%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
0.4%25.7%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%23.5%
0.4%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
0.5%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%19.8%
0.2%19.2%
<0.1%18.7%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23