Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:92% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:55% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:49% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:58% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:71% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:19% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:25% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.2% | 93.6% |
| 6-2 | 6.4% | 35.7% |
| 5-3 | 18.5% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 27.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 13.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 3.6% (+0.0%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.5% (-0.0%) | 3.6% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 3.6% • Scenario: 37.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 3.6% • Scenario: 42.7%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
92.3%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%91.8%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
51.5%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%39.0%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%37.0%
0.2%36.7%
0.1%36.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.3%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%21.4%
0.1%Any 3 losses
30.0%
4.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%44.8%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%42.9%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.6%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.9%
0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%30.7%
0.3%30.6%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
0.1%27.6%
<0.1%25.6%
0.1%25.5%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
16.3%
4.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.2%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.5%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-08-23