Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:79% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:67% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:14% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:49% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:65% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:42% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:75% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 13.3% | 94.2% |
| 6-2 | 26.7% | 35.0% |
| 5-3 | 29.2% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 18.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 7.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 24.6% (-0.1%) | 25.4% (+0.7%) | |
| 23.8% (-0.9%) | 25.9% (+1.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 25.9% • Scenario: 4.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 25.9% • Scenario: 42.7%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
97.7%
1.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.7%98.1%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.2%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.8%
0.1%Any 2 losses
86.2%
6.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.3%
0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.6%
0.4%95.2%
<0.1%94.9%
0.4%94.7%
0.3%94.5%
0.1%94.2%
0.7%93.9%
0.2%92.9%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%92.4%
0.9%92.3%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%90.7%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%29.6%
0.1%29.6%
0.2%29.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
61.5%
15.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.4%
0.3%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.6%
0.5%96.2%
0.7%96.2%
0.2%95.7%
0.5%94.8%
0.3%94.5%
0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.1%
0.2%93.9%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
1.4%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.8%
1.0%88.4%
<0.1%88.3%
<0.1%88.3%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.5%
0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.2%
0.1%44.5%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
0.1%42.4%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.4%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
0.1%39.6%
0.2%39.6%
0.1%39.6%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.3%
0.1%37.9%
0.2%37.6%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%36.9%
0.5%36.7%
0.4%36.2%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.5%
0.3%34.9%
0.3%34.5%
<0.1%33.9%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
0.4%31.6%
0.2%30.9%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
0.3%29.6%
0.6%29.4%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%27.3%
0.9%26.7%
<0.1%26.0%
0.5%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.2%24.0%
0.1%23.6%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
38.7%
16.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%96.5%
0.1%95.4%
0.2%95.4%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.8%
0.4%94.2%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.8%
0.2%93.5%
<0.1%92.3%
0.1%91.0%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
0.3%88.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.5%
0.1%54.8%
<0.1%53.7%
0.1%53.6%
<0.1%52.1%
<0.1%52.1%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.5%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
0.3%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.2%
0.1%44.7%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.6%
0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.3%
0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.1%
<0.1%40.5%
0.2%40.4%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.2%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.0%
0.3%37.9%
<0.1%37.7%
0.5%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.2%
0.4%37.1%
0.4%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.8%
0.7%36.6%
0.6%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
0.2%35.5%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.4%
0.4%34.0%
<0.1%33.7%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%32.4%
0.1%32.2%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
0.7%30.0%
<0.1%29.6%
0.1%29.5%
1.0%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
0.7%27.3%
0.1%27.0%
0.5%26.8%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.6%
1.4%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%21.1%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23