Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
62.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:93% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:89% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:52% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:60% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 20.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 41.2% | 90.2% |
| 6-2 | 28.7% | 18.6% |
| 5-3 | 8.6% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
16.0%Any 1 loss
91.3%
36.5%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
1.3%100.0%
1.7%100.0%
0.2%98.8%
1.9%97.6%
2.1%96.6%
1.9%96.5%
0.3%95.2%
0.6%92.8%
0.6%89.5%
14.8%86.6%
10.4%Any 2 losses
37.4%
30.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%98.5%
0.2%98.0%
<0.1%97.7%
0.2%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%96.2%
0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.3%
0.2%93.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.6%
1.2%89.5%
<0.1%89.0%
0.6%88.7%
1.6%87.7%
1.2%86.0%
0.8%84.0%
0.4%83.3%
0.1%82.7%
0.1%61.5%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.7%
<0.1%51.6%
0.3%50.9%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.6%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%38.2%
0.3%31.8%
<0.1%31.5%
0.2%30.6%
0.2%28.1%
0.4%27.4%
1.3%26.8%
1.8%26.1%
<0.1%25.5%
0.4%24.7%
1.4%23.5%
0.3%23.4%
<0.1%23.4%
1.9%22.2%
0.6%20.1%
0.6%19.4%
1.2%18.2%
1.7%9.2%
9.6%Any 3 losses
24.8%
6.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%86.7%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.2%
0.1%86.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.1%
0.2%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.6%
0.3%23.6%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.6%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.1%19.5%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.2%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
0.8%9.1%
0.4%8.5%
1.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
22.2%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23