Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-08-23
Conference Standings
| T1 |  SMUSMU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 40.6% | |
| T1 |  LouisvilleLOU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 24.7% | |
| T1 |  ClemsonCLEM | 0-0 | 0-0 | 23.7% | |
| T1 |  MiamiMIA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 20.4% | |
| T1 |  NC StateNCSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 18.8% | |
| T1 |  Florida StateFSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15.1% | |
| T1 |  Virginia TechVT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15.0% | |
| T1 |  DukeDUKE | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13.8% | |
| T1 |  North CarolinaUNC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.0% | |
| T1 |  Georgia TechGT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7.2% | |
| T1 |  PittsburghPITT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.6% | |
| T1 |  CaliforniaCAL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.4% | |
| T1 |  Boston CollegeBC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.4% | |
| T1 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.5% | |
| T1 |  SyracuseSYR | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.6% | |
| T1 |  VirginiaUVA | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
| T1 |  StanfordSTAN | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 40.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 40.6% (-0.0%) | 40.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 41.1% (+0.5%) | 39.9% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
NevadaFlorida StateCCG: 41.5% • Scenario: 6.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida StateCCG: 41.1% • Scenario: 57.3%
Data from 2024-08-23
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMUSMU | 99.9% | 91.6% | 30.2% | 0.3% | 40.6% |
| LouisvilleLOU | 99.9% | 94.2% | 35.0% | 0.5% | 24.7% |
| ClemsonCLEM | 99.8% | 92.7% | 33.3% | 0.4% | 23.7% |
| MiamiMIA | 99.9% | 93.5% | 42.3% | 1.1% | 20.4% |
| NC StateNCSU | 99.9% | 88.9% | 27.6% | 0.2% | 18.8% |
| Florida StateFSU | 100% | 97.2% | 54.4% | 2.4% | 15.1% |
| Virginia TechVT | 99.9% | 88.1% | 24.8% | 0.1% | 15.0% |
| DukeDUKE | 100% | 98.1% | 60.3% | 3.0% | 13.8% |
| North CarolinaUNC | 100% | 87.6% | 27.1% | 0.3% | 9.0% |
| Georgia TechGT | 100% | 96.6% | 54.7% | 2.0% | 7.2% |
| PittsburghPITT | 100% | 93.6% | 35.7% | 0.6% | 3.6% |
| CaliforniaCAL | 100% | 93.0% | 32.5% | 0.4% | 3.4% |
| Boston CollegeBC | 100% | 94.7% | 39.1% | 0.7% | 2.4% |
| Wake ForestWAKE | 100% | 92.2% | 33.5% | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| SyracuseSYR | 100% | 86.6% | 28.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| VirginiaUVA | - | 100% | 51.8% | 1.9% | <0.1% |
| StanfordSTAN | - | 100% | 44.6% | 3.1% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMUSMU(0-0) | 7.6% | 25.1% | 33.0% | 22.6% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| ClemsonCLEM(0-0) | 2.6% | 13.0% | 26.9% | 29.6% | 19.1% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.2 |
| LouisvilleLOU(0-0) | 2.7% | 13.3% | 26.7% | 29.2% | 18.8% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.2 |
| NC StateNCSU(0-0) | 2.0% | 11.1% | 25.1% | 30.1% | 21.0% | 8.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| Virginia TechVT(0-0) | 1.4% | 9.0% | 22.7% | 30.1% | 23.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| MiamiMIA(0-0) | 1.7% | 9.6% | 22.3% | 28.7% | 22.9% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| Florida StateFSU(0-0) | 0.7% | 5.2% | 16.0% | 27.3% | 27.4% | 16.5% | 5.8% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| North CarolinaUNC(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.8% | 15.2% | 27.0% | 27.5% | 17.1% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 4.4 |
| DukeDUKE(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.3% | 13.7% | 24.7% | 27.3% | 19.2% | 8.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 4.3 |
| Georgia TechGT(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.1% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 27.5% | 24.4% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 3.8 |
| PittsburghPITT(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.2% | 6.4% | 18.5% | 29.6% | 27.1% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 3.7 |
| CaliforniaCAL(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.2% | 6.5% | 17.6% | 28.8% | 27.3% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 3.7 |
| Boston CollegeBC(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 13.8% | 26.2% | 29.3% | 18.7% | 6.3% | 0.9% | 3.4 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 11.3% | 24.3% | 30.5% | 21.3% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 3.2 |
| SyracuseSYR(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 6.3% | 17.2% | 28.6% | 28.6% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 2.7 |
| VirginiaUVA(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 4.9% | 15.7% | 30.9% | 32.6% | 14.7% | 1.7 |
| StanfordSTAN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 15.0% | 30.3% | 33.9% | 15.7% | 1.6 |
Data from 2024-08-23