Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:94% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:69% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:11% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:79% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:40% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:90% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:28% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.7% | 70.2% |
| 6-2 | 6.0% | 5.2% |
| 5-3 | 20.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 32.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 11.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
71.7%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%72.0%
0.1%58.4%
0.1%Any 2 losses
11.9%
2.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
0.2%7.1%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
0.3%5.6%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
0.3%2.8%
0.9%Any 3 losses
7.7%
2.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.0%
0.3%2.9%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.7%1.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
8.0%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23