Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:46% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:33% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:69% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:23% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:17% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:29% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:32% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:29% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 86.6% |
| 6-2 | 1.3% | 28.9% |
| 5-3 | 6.3% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 37.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 42.7%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
59.2%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
36.3%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
29.2%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23