American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-27

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1ArmyARMY6-07-073.7%
T1TulaneTULN4-06-270.2%
T1NavyNAVY4-06-142.4%
4MemphisMEM3-17-113.4%
T5North TexasUNT2-25-30.3%
T5East CarolinaECU2-24-4<0.1%
T5CharlotteCLT2-23-5<0.1%
8South FloridaUSF1-23-4<0.1%
T9RiceRICE1-32-6-
T9TempleTEM1-32-6-
T9TulsaTLSA1-33-5-
T9UT San AntonioUTSA1-33-5-
T13FL AtlanticFAU0-32-5-
T13UABUAB0-41-6-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

146.5%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
220.8%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
319.1%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
46.4%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
54.4%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
62.5%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
70.3%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
8<0.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
ECUEast Carolina
9<0.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
10<0.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
11<0.1%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
12<0.1%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
13-
East CarolinaECU
vs
NAVYNavy
14-
ArmyARMY
vs
USFSouth Florida
15-
ArmyARMY
vs
CLTCharlotte

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 73.7%
Game
ArmyCCG OddsAway
ArmyCCG OddsHome
NavyNAVY@RiceRICE
71.1%
(-2.7%)		86.6%
(+12.9%)
TulaneTULN@CharlotteCLT
73.0%
(-0.7%)		84.2%
(+10.5%)
MemphisMEM@UT San AntonioUTSA
72.2%
(-1.5%)		77.6%
(+3.9%)
TulsaTLSA@UABUAB
73.8%
(+0.0%)		73.7%
(-0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@FL AtlanticFAU
73.8%
(+0.1%)		73.7%
(-0.1%)
Air ForceAF@ArmyARMY
74.1%
(+0.4%)		73.7%
(-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Army

RiceRiceCharlotteCharlotteMemphisMemphisFL AtlanticFlorida AtlanticAir ForceAir Force

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Army

RiceRice

CCG: 86.6% • Scenario: 17.2%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-2Overall
ArmyARMY100%69.8%-33.9%-1.4%-73.7%
TulaneTULN--100%-58.6%-1.6%70.2%
NavyNAVY100%73.9%-41.6%-2.4%-42.4%
MemphisMEM----75.4%-2.1%13.4%
North TexasUNT------2.9%0.3%
East CarolinaECU------0.8%<0.1%
CharlotteCLT------0.8%<0.1%
South FloridaUSF------0.3%<0.1%
FL AtlanticFAU--------
RiceRICE--------
TempleTEM--------
TulsaTLSA--------
UABUAB--------
UT San AntonioUTSA--------

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-35-44-44-53-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(6-0)36.5%45.3%0.0%16.6%0.0%1.6%0.0%--------8.2
TulaneTULN(4-0)-0.0%45.0%0.0%42.6%0.0%11.6%0.8%0.0%<0.1%-----7.3
NavyNAVY(4-0)5.9%26.6%0.0%39.0%0.0%22.7%0.0%0.0%5.4%0.0%0.4%----7.0
MemphisMEM(3-1)---0.0%16.2%0.0%55.8%25.4%0.0%2.5%0.0%<0.1%---5.9
North TexasUNT(2-2)-----0.0%10.9%38.6%0.0%37.3%0.0%12.0%1.1%--4.5
East CarolinaECU(2-2)-----0.0%3.4%22.4%0.0%44.6%0.0%25.6%4.0%--4.0
South FloridaUSF(1-2)-----0.0%3.8%20.7%0.0%36.8%0.0%28.6%9.3%0.9%-3.8
CharlotteCLT(2-2)-----0.0%0.7%12.3%0.0%38.5%0.0%38.6%10.0%--3.6
FL AtlanticFAU(0-3)-------4.7%0.0%21.8%0.0%36.1%26.8%9.4%1.2%2.8
UT San AntonioUTSA(1-3)-------1.5%0.0%15.7%0.0%43.7%35.1%4.0%-2.8
RiceRICE(1-3)-------0.4%0.0%7.2%0.0%33.4%43.3%15.6%-2.3
TulsaTLSA(1-3)-------0.3%0.0%4.6%0.0%22.4%43.4%29.3%-2.0
TempleTEM(1-3)-------<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%9.5%41.0%48.9%-1.6
UABUAB(0-4)---------0.2%0.0%7.3%31.9%44.1%16.5%1.3

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com