American Athletic Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 102 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 TulaneTULN 8-1 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	1.7%
9-0 ArmyARMY 8-1 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYMemphisMEM	1.7%
8-1 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 45.6% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 42.3% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 12.1%	1.6%
9-0 ArmyARMY 8-1 NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	1.5%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 82.0% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 17.9%	1.3%
8-1 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 75.5% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 24.5%	1.0%
8-1 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 71.9% ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 19.4% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 8.7%	1.0%
9-0 NavyNAVY 8-1 ArmyARMY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.9%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 81.9% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 18.1%	0.7%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.6%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 70.7% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 29.3%	0.5%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 56.9% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 39.3% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 3.8%	0.5%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 79.6% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 20.4%	0.5%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 92.8% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 6.6%	0.4%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 82.3% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 17.7%	0.3%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 52.2% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 27.1% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 20.8%	0.3%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 66.8% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 33.2%	0.3%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 62.2% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 30.9% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 6.9%	0.2%
8-1 NavyNAVY 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 82.8% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 15.3% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 1.9%	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 69.4% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 30.6%	0.2%
9-0 NavyNAVY 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 53.2% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 41.5% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 5.3%	0.2%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 50.3% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 47.6% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 2.0%	0.1%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 57.4% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 37.7% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 4.9%	0.1%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 75.0% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 25.0%	0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 70.1% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 29.9%	0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	<0.1%
7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 51.7% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 29.2% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 18.0%	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 90.4% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 9.6%	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 94.0% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 5.9%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 43.5% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 42.4% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 14.1%	<0.1%
8-1 NavyNAVY 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 70.4% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 28.4% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 1.2%	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 66.7% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 31.9% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 1.4%	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 70.3% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 20.3% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 9.4%	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 63.6% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 36.4%	<0.1%
9-0 ArmyARMY 8-1 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 83.6% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 16.4%	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 61.7% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 38.3%	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	<0.1%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
9-0 NavyNAVY 8-1 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
8-1 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 83.7% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 14.3% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 2.0%	<0.1%
9-0 NavyNAVY 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 53.1% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 46.9%	<0.1%
9-0 NavyNAVY 7-2 ArmyARMY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 55.6% ArmyARMYNorth TexasUNT 27.8% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 16.7%	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 84.4% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 15.6%	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Common conference opponents → Overall winning percentage

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.