Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W49-21 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-11 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W56-44 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-18 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-7 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W51-17 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L14-51 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:83% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12/14 | Win prob:38% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 5.9% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 26.6% | 73.9% |
| 7-2 | 39.0% | 41.6% |
| 6-3 | 22.7% | 2.4% |
| 5-4 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.8% (+4.5%) | 20.9% (-21.4%) | |
| 41.8% (-0.6%) | 51.0% (+8.7%) | |
| 41.6% (-0.7%) | 44.2% (+1.8%) | |
| 42.1% (-0.2%) | 42.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.1% (-0.2%) | 42.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 42.2% (-0.2%) | 42.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Navy
Charlotte
UTSA
Tulsa
South Florida
Air ForceCCG: 72.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NavyCCG: 46.8% • Scenario: 82.8%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.9%Any 1 loss
73.9%
26.6%
100.0%
9.8%100.0%
2.1%
100.0%
1.2%
99.9%
2.1%
39.0%
11.3%Any 2 losses
41.6%
39.0%100.0%
3.4%100.0%
2.0%99.9%
3.4%38.7%
18.4%16.2%
0.4%14.8%
0.4%13.8%
0.8%1.3%
2.4%1.2%
4.0%1.1%
3.9%Any 3 losses
2.8%
19.4%15.4%
1.2%11.8%
0.8%11.4%
0.7%1.2%
6.4%1.1%
6.5%0.9%
3.8%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27