Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W20-12 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L44-56 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W24-7 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W21-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W52-44 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W33-28 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 16.2% | 75.4% |
| 6-2 | 55.8% | 2.1% |
| 5-3 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.6% (-0.7%) | 16.8% (+3.5%) | |
| 13.3% (-0.1%) | 14.7% (+1.3%) | |
| 18.0% (+4.6%) | 1.3% (-12.0%) | |
| 13.3% (-0.0%) | 13.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 13.3% (-0.1%) | 13.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.4% (+0.1%) | 13.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rice
CharlotteMemphis
UAB
South Florida
Air ForceCCG: 32.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisCCG: 18.0% • Scenario: 72.2%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
75.4%
16.2%Any 1 loss
2.1%
55.8%
5.9%
6.3%5.4%
0.6%5.0%
1.5%
1.4%
47.4%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27