Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W26-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W26-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W26-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W45-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W21-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W23-16 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L27-28 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:16% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 5-3 | 25.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 43.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.7%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Syracuse
North Carolina
LouisvilleDuke
Pittsburgh
NC StateCCG: 5.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DukeCCG: 0.8% • Scenario: 15.8%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
3.7%
3.5%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27