Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
54.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | W29-24 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | W59-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L15-18 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W66-42 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-16 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-27 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W40-10 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W28-27 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 48.9% | 80.9% |
| 7-1 | 39.2% | 36.7% |
| 6-2 | 10.7% | 1.3% |
| 5-3 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 53.1% (-0.9%) | 58.9% (+4.8%) | |
| 54.0% (-0.1%) | 54.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 81.1% (+27.0%) | 47.1% (-7.0%) | |
| 79.6% (+25.5%) | 49.3% (-4.8%) | |
| 14.8% (-39.2%) | 62.9% (+8.9%) | |
| 56.4% (+2.3%) | 53.7% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Syracuse
North Carolina
Louisville
MiamiSMU
StanfordCCG: 96.7% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 62.9% • Scenario: 81.6%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
80.9%
48.9%Any 1 loss
36.7%
39.2%
43.8%
4.7%
42.1%
17.4%
38.4%
6.0%
24.3%
11.1%Any 2 losses
1.9%
6.8%3.6%
1.7%2.1%
0.6%1.3%
2.1%1.3%
1.4%1.1%
1.0%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27