Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W73-17 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W17-15 | |
| 9 | 10/24 | W41-13 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:28% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.6% | 62.5% |
| 6-2 | 26.5% | 1.5% |
| 5-3 | 41.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 21.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1% (-0.0%) | 5.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 5.2% (+0.1%) | 5.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.4%) | 5.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.3% (+2.2%) | 4.7% (-0.4%) | |
| 18.7% (+13.6%) | 2.0% (-3.1%) | |
| 4.9% (-0.2%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Louisville
DukePittsburgh
NC StateCCG: 27.5% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 18.7% • Scenario: 18.4%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Any 1 loss
62.4%
6.6%
92.3%
0.3%
87.4%
0.1%73.6%
1.4%
57.5%
2.2%
55.6%
2.5%Any 2 losses
1.5%
26.4%8.1%
<0.1%5.1%
0.9%3.0%
1.5%2.7%
0.3%2.7%
1.3%2.5%
0.5%1.7%
0.4%1.7%
6.4%1.5%
5.5%0.6%
9.6%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27