Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
49.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L3-34 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W66-20 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W59-35 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W40-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W29-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W49-14 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W48-31 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:80% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 41.2% | 93.5% |
| 7-1 | 43.3% | 24.9% |
| 6-2 | 14.1% | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 49.1% (-0.3%) | 50.7% (+1.3%) | |
| 49.2% (-0.2%) | 49.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 9.6% (-39.7%) | 59.6% (+10.3%) | |
| 58.7% (+9.4%) | 47.6% (-1.8%) | |
| 64.6% (+15.3%) | 45.9% (-3.5%) | |
| 47.3% (-2.0%) | 49.7% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Syracuse
North CarolinaClemson
Duke
Pittsburgh
NC StateCCG: 89.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ClemsonCCG: 59.6% • Scenario: 79.4%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.5%
27.1%Any 1 loss
46.5%
41.5%
93.4%
3.1%
93.2%
9.9%
29.2%
14.3%23.5%
7.1%
18.6%
7.0%Any 2 losses
29.7%
14.7%94.3%
1.1%28.9%
5.3%27.3%
1.5%23.1%
2.6%22.6%
0.8%17.6%
0.8%17.5%
2.5%Any 3 losses
19.7%
1.7%30.9%
0.6%20.9%
0.3%20.4%
0.3%1.2%
0.4%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27