Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L24-31 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L27-34 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W24-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L45-52 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W31-27 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:20% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:72% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:64% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 13.5% | 5.5% |
| 5-3 | 58.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 25.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.6% (+2.9%) | 0.0% (-0.8%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.9%) | 0.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.9%) | 0.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Syracuse
North CarolinaLouisville
Duke
Pittsburgh
StanfordCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisvilleCCG: 3.6% • Scenario: 20.6%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
5.5%
8.7%
5.6%
4.8%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27